The Opta statistics network has indicated that Egypt are marginally favoured to defeat Australia, following 25,000 computer simulations conducted ahead of the match, in which Egypt recorded a 38.6 per cent winning probability.
Australia are set to play their third knockout match in World Cup history, having lost their previous two, first 1–0 to Italy in 2006, and then 2–1 to Argentina in 2022.
Egypt will contest only their second World Cup knockout match, with their first appearance in this stage dating back to 1934, when they were beaten 4–2 by Hungary in a tournament format that did not include group stages.
The two sides have met twice at senior level, with Australia winning a 1987 friendly on penalties by 4–3 after a goalless draw, while Egypt won the most recent meeting 3–0 in a friendly in 2010.
The Opta model, based on 25,000 simulations, assigns Egypt a 38.6 per cent chance of victory, Australia 30.4 per cent, and a 31.0 per cent likelihood of a draw after 90 minutes.
The data suggested that a closely contested tie, with Egypt given a 54 per cent probability of progressing to the next round, compared with 46 per cent for Australia.
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