Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that no oil will be allowed to leave the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue, escalating tensions in an already volatile conflict.
The warning prompted US President Donald Trump to threaten significantly stronger military action if Iran attempts to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pushed back strongly against Trump’s suggestion that the war could end soon. A spokesperson said Iran -- not the United States -- would determine when the conflict ends and dismissed Trump’s remarks as “nonsense.”
Meanwhile, Major General Ali Abdullahi, commander of the Khatm al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, also rejected Washington’s claims that the conflict could end quickly.
“This is an endless war,” Abdullahi said. He added that the United States and Israel are “not in a position to end the war.”
He further described the killing of Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as an “unforgivable crime” and said the US and Israel must first apologize for their actions.
Trump threatens stronger response
The escalating rhetoric comes after Trump warned that the United States would respond forcefully if Iran attempted to halt oil exports from the Gulf. Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Trump said Iran would face overwhelming retaliation.
“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” he said.
Later on his Truth Social platform, Trump repeated the warning.
Also Read: Trump vows '20 times harsher' response if Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.”
Oil markets, global stocks react
Despite the heated rhetoric, oil prices and global markets showed signs of volatility rather than panic.
Brent crude futures dropped more than 10% on Tuesday after surging by as much as 29% a day earlier, when prices reached their highest levels since 2022.
Global stock markets also rebounded after Trump predicted the conflict could end sooner than expected and reports emerged that sanctions on Russian energy might be eased.
The price of gasoline remains politically sensitive in the United States, particularly ahead of the November midterm elections where Republicans aim to retain control of Congress.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found that 67% of Americans expect gas prices to rise in the coming months, while only 29% approve of the war.
Global energy concerns
The conflict has already severely disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil export route connecting Gulf producers with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
The strait has effectively been shut for more than a week, leaving oil tankers unable to sail and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill up.
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, warned Tuesday that continued disruptions could have “catastrophic consequences” for global oil markets.
War goals differ between Washington, Israel
While Washington and Tel Aviv are aligned militarily, their publicly stated goals for the war differ. US officials say their primary objective is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear program.
Trump, however, has suggested the war can only end if Iran forms a government willing to comply with US demands.
Israel has been even more explicit about its broader objective.
“Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Tuesday.
“In the end, that depends on them. But there is no doubt that through the actions taken so far we are breaking their bones — and our hand is still extended.”
He added that if Israel succeeds alongside the Iranian people, it could bring about a permanent end to Iran’s current system of clerical rule.
According to Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, at least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands more wounded since US and Israeli air and missile strikes began across the country at the end of February.
The escalating war has raised fears of wider regional instability and a prolonged global energy crisis.
Leadership change in Iran
Hopes for a quick resolution also faded after Iran announced a new supreme leader. Authorities named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The move initially sent oil markets soaring and global stocks tumbling, reflecting investor fears that the conflict could deepen.
Markets later reversed course after Trump signaled the possibility of easing sanctions on some countries to address potential energy shortages.
Possible easing of sanctions on Russian oil
After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said the United States might waive oil-related sanctions for “some countries.”
Analysts say that could involve further easing restrictions on Russian oil exports, which could complicate Western efforts to pressure Moscow over its war in Ukraine.
Other measures under consideration include releasing oil from strategic reserves or restricting US exports to stabilize markets.
No renewed talks with Washington
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also signaled that diplomacy with Washington may be off the table. In an interview with PBS, Araqchi said Tehran is unlikely to resume negotiations with the United States.
“Still, they decided to attack us. So I don’t think talking to the Americans anymore would be on our agenda any more,” he said.
