According to the 2025 World Trade Report, artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of cross-border goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040 with the right enabling policies, due to productivity gains and lower trade costs.
However, the WTO Secretariat's flagship publication states that for AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth — with benefits shared widely — policies must be in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment.
According to the report, AI could lead to significant increases in trade and GDP by 2040, with global trade expected to increase by 34-37% depending on the degree of policy and technological catch-up between low-, middle-, and high-income economies.
Meanwhile, various scenarios suggest that global GDP will rise by 12-13%. Trade, in turn, can be a powerful enabler of inclusive AI-supported growth by allowing economies to obtain AI-enabling goods such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs. According to the WTO report, global trade in these goods will reach $2.3 trillion by 2023.
"AI has tremendous potential for lowering trade costs and increasing productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the ability to participate in digital trade remain highly uneven," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala writes in the report's foreword.
"With the right combination of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI can open up new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks in place, trade can play an important role in making AI work for everyone. "The WTO is committed to supporting this effort," DG Okonjo-Iweala stated.
In a scenario in which low- and middle-income economies reduce their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by half and adopt AI more widely, their incomes are expected to rise by 15% and 14%, respectively.
The report also emphasizes the importance of open and predictable trade policies, noting that the number of quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods has increased dramatically over time, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper-middle-income countries. Access to AI-enabled goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs of up to 45% in some low-income countries.
According to the report, investing in education and training, as well as implementing appropriate labour market policies, can help to prevent economic inequality from widening.
The report emphasises the WTO's role in promoting inclusive access to AI and its benefits. According to the report, the organisation provides a forum for WTO members to discuss AI-related trade measures, with 80 specific trade concerns raised at the WTO focusing on AI. Dedicated discussions on AI and inclusive trade have also taken place as part of the Work Programme on E-Commerce.
Additional commitments from members, such as increased participation in the WTO's Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, could help make AI more inclusive and affordable, according to the report.
