The recent US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities did not completely destroy the core components of Iran’s nuclear program and are believed to have set it back by only a few months, according to an early assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).
The classified assessment, based on a detailed battle damage report by US Central Command, challenges President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes had "completely obliterated" Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Seven sources familiar with the report told CNN that much of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile survived the attack and most of the centrifuges remain intact.
According to CNN, Iranian officials appeared to have moved key uranium materials out of the targeted sites ahead of the strikes.
"The DIA believes the strikes may have delayed Iran’s program by a few months at most," one source said, as per CNN.
The White House, however, strongly rejected the assessment. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the intelligence report "flat-out wrong" and claimed the leak aimed to undermine President Trump and discredit the success of the operation. Trump, currently attending the NATO summit in the Netherlands, doubled down on his earlier statements, calling the strikes “one of the most successful military operations in history” and insisting that Iran’s nuclear sites had been “completely destroyed.”
The Pentagon maintains that the strikes were a significant success, but officials admit it is still too early for a full damage evaluation. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine said the assessment is ongoing and it is "way too early" to conclude whether Iran retains nuclear capabilities.
According to defense sources, while the US B-2 bombers dropped over a dozen 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs on key nuclear facilities, including Fordow and Natanz, the strikes largely damaged aboveground structures such as power grids and uranium processing buildings. The fortified underground facilities, which house centrifuges and enriched uranium, appear to have withstood much of the impact.
Israel, which had conducted pre-strike operations on Iranian nuclear sites, reportedly found the damage to the Fordow facility to be less than expected. However, Israeli intelligence estimates that combined US-Israeli strikes may have set Iran’s program back by up to two years — assuming Iran is not able to rebuild quickly, which Israel has vowed to prevent.
Independent weapons experts and analysts who have reviewed commercial satellite imagery agree with the DIA’s preliminary findings. Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons specialist at the Middlebury Institute, said the strikes failed to fully destroy underground nuclear sites near Natanz, Isfahan, and Parchin, which could enable Iran to rapidly resume its nuclear program.
Notably, the US targeted Isfahan using Tomahawk missiles from a submarine, rather than deploying bunker buster bombs, due to the depth of its underground facilities.
Concerns persist that Iran may still be operating secret nuclear sites that were not targeted in the recent military operation.
Meanwhile, classified briefings on the strikes scheduled for both the House and Senate were unexpectedly postponed. Some lawmakers, including Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, suggested the delay was to avoid scrutiny over the accuracy of the administration’s public claims.
The international community continues to monitor the situation closely as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, but questions remain about the true extent of the damage and Iran’s ability to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure.
