Candidates linked to jailed former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan were running a close race with the party of three-time premier Nawaz Sharif on Friday as election results trickled in after a long delay that added to accusations of poll rigging.
Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was barred from contesting Thursday's election as a bloc, but official results showed independent candidates linked to his party winning 12 seats so far -- two less than the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
Unofficial tallies on local TV stations had independents in the lead for many of the remaining seats up for grabs in the 266-member assembly.
By 10:30 am (0530 GMT) -- nearly 18 hours after polling stations closed -- the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) had announced just 37 National Assembly seat results.
"Independents spring surprise, PTI-backed candidates defy odds," said the headline of the English-language Express Tribune newspaper on Friday.
"There was a sense of certainty about the outcome," Sarah Khan, an assistant professor of political science at Yale University, told AFP.
"That sense of certainty got upset very early on," she added. "It's definitely not the foregone conclusion that anybody thought it might be."
Before the first results were officially announced, PTI chief organiser Omar Ayub Khan said he was confident the party had done enough.
"Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-backed independent candidates have the ability to form the next federal government with a two-thirds majority," he said in a video statement released to media.
The PML-N had been expected to win the most seats following Thursday's vote, with analysts saying its 74-year-old founder Nawaz Sharif had the blessing of the military-led establishment.
Party spokeswoman Marriyum Aurangzeb said they were still hopeful of taking the largest province of Punjab, crucial to forming a government.
The PPP, meanwhile, appeared to be doing better than expected, with leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari saying early results were "very encouraging".
The election commission had earlier blamed "internet problems" for a delay in results, but said they would now "be flowing in continuously".
"Why did they take so long? Why not announce results before 1 am?" asked Ambreen Naz, 35, a businesswoman in Lahore.
"You know what will happen now? The stock market will open with volatile swings. The dollar will rise and the rupee will fall. All because they delayed the results and made them controversial," she told AFP.
The stock exchange index dipped nearly four percent on opening.
- Rigging fears -
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, told AFP the delay "suggests that the powers that be are trying to create an environment that allows them to more easily be involved in the electoral process".
"Vote tampering and rigging fears are rife, and for good reason," he said more bluntly on X.
Pollsters predicted a low turnout from the country's 128 million eligible voters following a lacklustre campaign overshadowed by the jailing of Khan, and the hobbling of PTI through court orders, a ban on rallies, and the harassment of party leaders.
Allegations of poll rigging overshadowed the election, as well as authorities' voting day shutdown of the country's mobile phone network -- ostensibly on security grounds.
Digital rights activist Usama Khilji said the mobile service blackout "strengthens the popular perception that the elections are rigged by the deep state".
Raoof Hasan, PTI's secretary for information, said in a video statement that party agents in the field had reported PTI candidates leading in 125 constituencies.
"An effort may be afoot to tamper with the results," he said of the delay in announcements from ECP headquarters.
- Security efforts -
First-time voter Haleema Shafiq, a 22-year-old psychology student, said she believed in the importance of voting.
"I believe in democracy. I want a government that can make Pakistan safer for girls," she told AFP in Islamabad.
Syed Tassawar, a 39-year-old construction worker, added: "My only fear is whether my vote will be counted for the same party I cast it for."
More than 650,000 army, paramilitary and police personnel were deployed to provide security on Thursday.
There were a total of 51 attacks nationwide, the army said, killing a dozen people including 10 security force members -- fewer than in 2018, when dozens were killed.
Thursday's election had a similar air to that poll, but with the tables turned.
Then, it was Sharif who was disqualified from running because of a string of convictions for graft, while Khan swept to power with the backing of the military, as well as genuine support.
The history of Pakistan's elections is chequered with allegations of rigging but also favouritism, said Bilal Gilani, executive director of polling group Gallup Pakistan.
"It's a managed democracy that the military runs," he said.
