The box office is witnessing a major surge as Michael gears up for a powerful U.S. opening weekend.
Early numbers suggest a breakout performance that could set new records for the studio.
Industry insiders are already calling it one of the most energetic theatrical launches in recent years.
Early estimates indicate that Michael is heading toward a $35M–$40M Friday, a figure that already includes $12.6M from preview screenings.
The film’s momentum suggests a weekend range of $85M–$95M, with some analysts noting there is potential for an even higher finish depending on whether audiences turn out evenly or skew heavily toward early fans.
A source close to the production described the atmosphere inside cinemas, saying:
“Something special is happening, people are dancing in the theaters.”
Record-breaking post-COVID performance for Lionsgate
If projections hold, Michael will mark the best post-COVID opening for Lionsgate, surpassing John Wick: Chapter 4, which previously held the studio record with a $73.8M opening weekend.
This positions the biopic as a significant commercial win and a rare breakout beyond franchise-driven releases.
Musical biopic box office milestone
The film is also set to rewrite the record books for the musical biopic genre.
It is expected to comfortably surpass Straight Outta Compton, which previously held the benchmark with a $60.2M domestic debut.
The strong showing highlights renewed audience interest in large-scale musical storytelling on the big screen.
Industry comparisons are already being drawn with Bohemian Rhapsody, produced by Graham King.
The earlier hit posted a $18.8M Friday/previews figure and maintained the same momentum into Saturday, ultimately delivering a $51M North American opening weekend.
King’s track record of adapting complex musical lives for cinema is once again under the spotlight as Michael outpaces similar genre launches.
Beyond the numbers, early audience reactions are fueling word-of-mouth momentum.
Reports from theaters suggest unusually high engagement, with viewers reacting strongly to musical sequences and performances.
The combination of fan enthusiasm and early preview turnout is being seen as a key driver behind the film’s aggressive box office trajectory.
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