Global alcohol consumption is set to drop over the next decade, despite population growth and rising demand in India, which is set to become the world's biggest drinks market after China, according to market research firm IWSR.
Sales from across the sector, including Johnnie Walker whisky maker Diageo and Anheuser-Busch InBev, which owns beer labels Corona and Stella Artois, have contracted since 2023 and stock market valuations have shrunk.
After a post-pandemic boom, drinks makers say a surge in living costs, together with changing consumer habits, health concerns and the rise of weight-loss drugs, which may impact users' drinking rates, have had a major impact on demand.
In its first 10-year forecast spanning 160 markets, IWSR said it did not expect global alcohol consumption volumes to stop falling until after 2031.
Even by 2035, they will be 1% below volumes last year, despite a 9% rise in the global number of legal-age drinkers, it predicted.
People will be drinking less, with global annual per capita litres of pure alcohol set to drop by the equivalent of two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year by then, it said.
Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, said changing consumer tastes were a major challenge and companies had to adapt rather than "rely on past successes".
Spirits, beer and wine will all lose volumes by 2035 under IWSR's forecast, as newer types of drink, such as canned cocktails, take their place.
Demand will come from beyond the biggest traditional markets. IWSR forecast an over 18% drop in alcohol servings consumed by 2035 in the biggest drinking markets, China and the United States. Declines will also be marked in Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.
With a 38% increase over the next 10 years, India will take the United States' place as the world's second-largest alcohol market behind China by 2032. Other countries with growing demand will be Mexico with 13%, Vietnam with 15% and Colombia with a 26% rise in drinking.
