Independent studies reveal that the human cost of the Gaza war has far exceeded official estimates, with more than 75,000 violent deaths recorded by early 2025.
Researchers warn that the enclave now faces a decade-long backlog of complex medical cases.
A series of peer-reviewed papers, including the Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS) published in The Lancet Global Health, provides independent verification of Gaza’s casualty figures. The study estimates 75,200 violent deaths between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025 — 34.7% higher than the Ministry of Health’s (MoH) official count of 49,090 deaths during the same period.
While Israel has questioned official figures, an Israeli army official acknowledged approximately 70,000 deaths by January 2025, aligning with independent research. Notably, women, children, and the elderly accounted for 56.2% of casualties, consistent with Palestinian reporting.
Methodology
The GMS interviewed 2,000 households, representing 9,729 individuals, offering a population-representative view of Gaza’s losses. Michael Spagat, lead author and professor of economics at Royal Holloway University of London, highlighted that MoH reporting is conservative due to the collapse of administrative infrastructure.
Earlier studies used probability modeling to estimate undercounts; the latest survey relied on direct household interviews to provide empirical verification of violent deaths and 16,300 non-violent excess deaths caused by deteriorating living conditions and medical sector collapse.
Reconstructive health crisis
The war has left Gaza with a staggering backlog of injuries requiring complex surgery. A multi-source model published in eClinicalMedicine estimated 116,020 cumulative injuries as of April 30, 2025, with 29,000–46,000 needing reconstructive surgery. Over 80% of these injuries were caused by explosions in densely populated urban areas.
Even if surgical capacity returned to pre-war levels, experts warn it could take a decade to address the backlog. Before the conflict, Gaza had only eight board-certified plastic and reconstructive surgeons for its 2.2 million population.
Healthcare system collapse
By May 2025, only 12 of 36 hospitals remained capable of care beyond basic emergency triage, with around 2,000 hospital beds available for the population, down from over 3,000 pre-war. Specialized procedures such as microsurgery are nearly absent, and the use of incendiary weapons has increased the severity of injuries.
Researchers emphasize that tens of thousands of Palestinians face long-term disabilities without urgent international intervention and increased reconstructive medical support.
Experts describe a “grey zone” of mortality where indirect deaths — from sepsis, renal failure, or lack of surgical care — further increase Gaza’s true death toll. Forced evacuations covering over 80% of Gaza, along with famine declarations in northern Gaza, have worsened physiological resilience among survivors, complicating recovery and surgical outcomes.
