A new wave of inflation may hit consumers as the federal government prepares to collect thousands of billions of rupees through petroleum surcharge and levy in the coming years.
According to documents, the government has prepared a plan to collect Rs10,780 billion from consumers over the next five years in the name of petroleum surcharge.
The proposed collection is expected to place a heavy burden on the public even if petrol prices are not increased directly.
Officials have also reportedly assured the International Monetary Fund that tax collection through petroleum surcharge will continue.
The documents show that the total petroleum surcharge and levy burden from 2021 to 2031 is expected to reach Rs16,273 billion. The plan also indicates that consumers may face an additional annual burden equal to 1.2% of GDP.
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This would make petroleum-related taxation a major source of government revenue in the coming years.
New budget targets Rs1,727bn collection
For the new fiscal year 2026-27, the government has set a target to collect Rs1,727 billion through petroleum levy and surcharge. The burden is expected to rise further in the following years.
According to the document, the collection target is likely to reach Rs1,915 billion in 2027-28 and Rs2,370 billion in 2028-29.
The petroleum surcharge burden is projected to continue increasing each year. By the fifth year, 2030-31, the government plans to impose a burden of Rs2,637 billion on consumers.
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The steady rise shows that petroleum-related charges will remain a key part of the government’s revenue strategy.
In the last five years, Rs4,493 billion has already been collected from consumers in the form of petroleum levy. The data shows that this burden has increased sharply over time.
In 2020-21, Rs128 billion was collected under this head. The amount rose to Rs580 billion in 2022-23 and Rs1,019 billion in 2023-24.
Current year collection may exceed target
For the current fiscal year, the petroleum levy target was set at Rs1,468 billion. However, the actual collection is now expected to reach Rs1,546 billion, higher than the original target.
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This indicates that petroleum levy collections are already exceeding planned levels.
Inflation impact feared
Although petrol prices may not be raised immediately, the added surcharge could still increase inflationary pressure across the economy.
Higher petroleum-related charges can increase transport costs, which may then raise prices of daily-use items and essential goods.
The imposition of an additional surcharge is therefore expected to trigger a fresh wave of inflation affecting households, businesses and consumers across Pakistan.
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