Global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, with the Arctic likely to warm far faster than the global average, according to a new World Meteorological Organization report produced by the UK’s Met Office.
The Global Annual-to-Decadal Update predicts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will remain well above the 1850-1900 average, raising the likelihood of more record-breaking heat.
According to the report, annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are predicted to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The update says there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
The report also reviews observed climate conditions over the past five years and provides regional predictions for temperature and precipitation over the next five years.
1.5°C threshold likely to be temporarily crossed
The WMO update says there is a 91% chance that global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was around 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.
The report adds that there is a 75% chance that the five-year mean temperature for 2026-2030 will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.
However, it says it is exceptionally unlikely, with less than a 1% chance, that any single year will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average during the next five years.
Paris Agreement targets
The report clarifies that the 1.5°C and 2.0°C levels mentioned in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years.
It says individual years exceeding these thresholds do not mean the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach.
However, temporary exceedances are expected to occur more often as the underlying rise in global temperature moves closer to those levels.
El Niño may raise chances of record year
The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific, known as the Niño 3.4 region, indicates a tendency toward El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said an El Niño is predicted for the end of 2026.
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” he said.
The update is produced by the UK’s Met Office in its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.
It brings together forecasts contributed by 13 institutes, including four Global Producing Centres: the Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst and the Met Office.
The report says confidence in forecasts of annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature is high because hindcasts show very strong skill.
Arctic warming to remain far above global average
The WMO report says Arctic temperature anomalies are expected to remain higher than the global mean. Arctic temperatures over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters, from November to March, are predicted to be 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average.
This anomaly is more than three and a half times the global mean temperature anomaly expected over the same period.
Predictions for Arctic sea ice from March 2026 to 2035 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration. The report points to expected declines in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
Wetter high latitudes, drier subtropics
The precipitation outlook favours wetter-than-average conditions at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere during the next five extended winter seasons, from November to March.
The report says a pattern of increased precipitation in the tropics and high latitudes, along with reduced precipitation in the subtropics, especially in the southern hemisphere, is consistent with expectations in a warming climate.
For May to September between 2026 and 2030, predicted precipitation patterns suggest wet anomalies are more likely in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia.
Dry anomalies are more likely over the Amazon during the same season.
Southeastern Europe highlighted in regional forecast
The update provides regional forecasts for all WMO regions and highlights South-Eastern Europe as an example. The region experiences major variability in December to February precipitation.
Recent years have been unusually dry after several years of high precipitation since 2009.
The forecast suggests the 2026-2030 period is likely to see anomalously high precipitation in South-Eastern Europe, though the report notes that prediction skill for the region is low.
The WMO said the forecasts are intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres, Regional Climate Outlook Forums and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
The report notes that the skill of interannual-to-decadal forecasts differs from weather and seasonal forecasts and may vary considerably by region and season.
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