Climate change could significantly reshape global plant life, with up to 16% of vascular plant species at risk of losing more than 90% of their natural habitat by 2100, according to a new scientific study.
The findings suggest that shifting temperatures and changing environmental conditions are rapidly reducing the areas where many plant species can survive.
Researchers analyzed more than 67,000 vascular plant species, which represent nearly all major plant groups on Earth that rely on water- and nutrient-transport systems.
This accounts for roughly 18% of all known vascular plant species globally.
Using millions of plant location records and future climate scenarios, scientists projected how species ranges could shift between 2081 and 2100.
Up to 16% species at high risk
The study found that between 7% and 16% of plant species could lose over 90% of their current range under future climate conditions, placing them at high risk of extinction.
Among the species highlighted as vulnerable are:
- Catalina ironwood, a rare tree native to California
- Bluish spike-moss, part of an ancient plant lineage dating back over 400 million years
- Around one-third of Eucalyptus species in Australia
Climate change shrinks suitable habitats
Researchers explained that a plant’s habitat depends on multiple factors, including temperature, rainfall, soil conditions, and land features such as shade.
As global temperatures rise, these environmental “climate envelopes” are shifting, forcing species to move northward or to higher altitudes to survive.
However, scientists noted that many plants cannot keep pace with these rapid changes.
The study also examined whether plants could survive by naturally dispersing to new suitable habitats through seeds or spores.
Even under ideal conditions where plants could theoretically reach all new habitats, extinction risks remained nearly the same.
Researchers said this indicates that habitat loss, rather than movement limitations, is the main driver of risk.
The effects of climate change on plant life are expected to differ by region:
- Arctic regions may lose cold-adapted plant species as extreme cold habitats shrink
- Dry regions such as the western United States and the Mediterranean may face drought, soil moisture loss, and wildfires
- Coastal areas in southern and eastern Australia may limit plant migration due to geography
At the same time, around 28% of Earth’s land could see an increase in plant diversity as new species move into suitable conditions.
Global 'reshuffling' of ecosystems
Scientists describe the expected changes as a global reshuffling of plant life, where some species disappear from their traditional habitats while others expand into new regions.
This could lead to the formation of “novel ecosystems” — plant communities that have never existed before.
However, researchers caution that these local gains do not offset overall biodiversity losses.
Plants play a critical role in ecosystems by storing carbon, stabilizing soil, and supporting wildlife and agriculture.
Researchers warn that declining plant diversity could reduce the Earth’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide, potentially accelerating global warming in a feedback loop.
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