The World Bank has warned that the ongoing Middle East war is placing severe pressure on global commodity markets, with oil prices expected to reach their highest level since 2022 if the conflict continues.
In its Commodity Markets Outlook Report 2026, the World Bank said disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are affecting oil shipments and could trigger wider inflation, food insecurity and slower growth, especially in developing countries.
The report warned that if the war lasts longer, oil prices could climb to $115 per barrel.
The World Bank has set the average Brent oil price at $86 per barrel, but warned that continued disruption in supply routes could push prices much higher.
Strait of Hormuz disruption hits oil supply
The report said oil shipments are being affected because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes.
The World Bank noted that global oil supply has recorded a daily decrease of around 10 million barrels. This disruption has added pressure to international energy markets and raised fears of further price instability.
Energy prices likely to rise sharply
The World Bank said global energy prices are likely to increase by 16% to 24%. Oil, gas and coal prices are projected to rise by 24% in 2026, according to the report.
However, the World Bank expects oil, gas and coal prices to decline by 17.2% in 2027 if market conditions stabilize.
The World Bank warned that higher energy prices are likely to increase inflation across the world. According to the report, global inflation may rise by 5.1%.
The rise in fuel, power and transport costs could affect households, businesses and governments, creating additional economic pressure.
Poor countries face greater pressure
The World Bank report warned that rising food prices will put more pressure on poor countries. It said another 45 million people may suffer from malnutrition if food and energy prices continue to rise.
The report also warned of possible job losses worldwide and slower economic growth as inflation and commodity prices rise together.
Developing economies may slow further
The economic growth rate of developing countries is likely to fall to 3.6%, according to the World Bank.
The report said high commodity prices, expensive energy and rising food costs could weaken recovery in poorer and emerging economies. This slowdown may also increase pressure on employment and household incomes.
The World Bank expressed concern over a possible 31% increase in global fertilizer prices. The report said urea prices could rise by as much as 60%.
A sharp increase in fertilizer costs could make farming more expensive and add further pressure to food prices in vulnerable countries.
Gold, silver prices expected to rise
The World Bank also predicted that precious metals, including gold and silver, will become more expensive. This could lead to a rise in jewelry prices globally.
The increase in precious metal prices reflects investor concerns during a period of conflict, inflation and uncertainty in global markets.
The World Bank said wheat prices are expected to increase slightly in 2026 and 2027. Rice prices may fall slightly in 2026, followed by a slight increase in 2027.
Sugar prices are expected to continue falling, while chicken and beef are likely to become more expensive.
World Bank recommends targeted subsidies
The World Bank report recommended that governments provide targeted subsidies only to deserving and vulnerable groups. The report suggested that broad-based subsidies could place additional pressure on public finances.
Targeted support, it said, would help protect the poorest households while reducing the fiscal burden on governments.
The Commodity Markets Outlook Report 2026 shows that the Middle East war is no longer only a regional crisis. Its impact is being felt across energy, food, fertilizer and precious metal markets.
With oil supply disrupted, inflation rising and food insecurity worsening, the World Bank warned that poor and developing countries could face the heaviest burden if the conflict continues.
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